Mode shift in perishables Notes: very small trade lanes excluded; trade lane distances are approximate While not every commodity shows an air/sea split that follows this pattern, a number of commodities do, including fresh beans, capsicum, mangoes, and others. Controlled atmosphere containers could drive additional mode shift for these specific commodities. In addition to capturing share from air cargo, there is the potential to open new trade lanes previously untouched by air or ocean. For example, avocadoes are already transported almost exclusively by ocean, but transport distances are limited by technology; controlled atmosphere technology could connect new markets. While mode shift has largely stabilised with traditional reefer containers, new technology has the potential to be an engine for growth. What will be very interesting to watch will be the extent to which longer trade lanes grow once ocean transport becomes a viable option. We may find that trade flows that currently rely on air transport may actually be constrained due to poor economics. Once ocean transport becomes a possibility, some markets may open up quite a bit, dramatically changing the trade structure for these commodities. May 2014 5
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